T20Is or ODIs - Which format are Emerging teams more competitive in?

 

Since T20Is have started to become more popular in recent years and with ODI World cups reduced to 10 teams for 2019 and 2023 editions, cricket fans are being made to hear that these Emerging teams are competitive in T20Is, but is there any truth to that. Such arguments are not backed with statistics or any evidence, so here let's do a statistical analysis and try to see which format suits Emerging teams more

 

Since ICC took a global approach and added 5 more teams with ODI status from Jan 2006 and Associates also started to move from completely amateur setups to semi-professional setups around that time, so for the analysis we will consider all ODIs from Jan 2006. Also T20I status was given to all ODI status Associates from 2007, so we will consider all T20Is as well from that time

 

Regarding the teams, we consider all ODI and T20I matches played between Emerging teams, which includes Ireland, Scotland, Netherlands, Afghanistan, Kenya, Canada, Bermuda, UAE, Hong Kong, Namibia and PNG against the traditional Top 8 teams of Australia, England, India, Pakistan, New Zealand, South Africa, Sri Lanka and West Indies. Other Associate teams are yet to play any ODIs or T20Is against the traditional Top 8 in this period. We have excluded Bangladesh and Zimbabwe in this analysis as they have mostly been the in-betweens. Bangladesh have improved in recent years but they still have a knack of losing to Emerging teams and Zimbabwe is about same level as the Emerging teams, so they are excluded

 

While doing the analysis, we find that the Emerging teams have played 139 such ODIs and 62 such T20Is against the traditional Top 8 teams since Jan 2006 which have had a result. In ODIs, Emerging teams have won 10 matches and tied 2 of them out of 139, giving a win %age of 7.91% and in T20Is, Emerging teams have won 7 matches out of 62, giving a win %age of 11.29%. Some improvement does look to be there in T20Is, but with the win percentages being too low, we have to look at the matches more closely

 

One way and probably the best way to look at the level of competitiveness is to look at the run rates. So here let's do a run rate analysis in these 139 ODIs and 62 T20Is. While doing run rate analysis, we find that in ODIs, teams had a NRR of -1.99 across the matches and in T20Is, the NRR comes out to be -2.20, showing that ODIs have been similar to T20Is. Since ODIs have been mostly 50 overs and T20Is of mostly 20 overs, so comparing the run rates against each other by doing RRF/RRA, we see that in ODIs, Emerging teams showed competitiveness level of 66.3% in ODIs and 73.07% in T20Is, which is about similar, which means that the myth of Emerging teams being more competitive in T20Is is not true at all with similar figures. Overall, a ODI will mean the top teams scoring 296 in their 50 overs and the emerging team scoring 196 off their 50 overs on an average. In T20Is, the top teams will score 164 off their 20 overs and the emerging teams will score 120 off their 20 overs on an average

 

Comparing the figures for each team, we find out in ODIs

 

Team	Matches	RRF	RRA	NRR	RRF/RRA	Avg score for	Avg score against
Afghanistan	27	4.065678	5.020545	-0.95487	0.809808	204	252
Bermuda	3	2.613333	6.773706	-4.16037	0.385806	130	338
Canada	9	3.888889	6.130963	-2.24207	0.634303	194	306
Hong Kong	4	3.13	6.143953	-3.01395	0.509444	156	308
Ireland	52	4.237183	5.8724	-1.63522	0.721542	212	294
Kenya	8	3.424936	6.531902	-3.10697	0.52434	172	326
Netherlands	10	3.716327	6.955269	-3.23894	0.534318	186	348
PNG	1	4	4.674419	-0.67442	0.855721	200	234
Scotland	19	3.695537	6.261407	-2.56587	0.590209	184	314
UAE	6	3.756667	6.445188	-2.68852	0.582864	188	322
Overall	139	3.92829	5.924372	-1.99608	0.663073	196	296

 

In T20Is, the corresponding figures are

Team	Matches	RRF	RRA	NRR	RRF/RRA	Avg score for	Avg score against
Afghanistan	18	6.546479	7.713033	-1.16655	0.848755	130	154
Canada	2	6	7.25	-1.25	0.827586	120	145
Ireland	16	6.031529	8.413259	-2.38173	0.716908	120	168
Kenya	3	4.216667	10.24799	-6.03133	0.411463	84	204
Namibia	4	6.0375	8.542377	-2.50488	0.70677	120	170
Netherlands	7	5.442857	7.259368	-1.81651	0.74977	108	146
Scotland	8	6.027211	9.750943	-3.72373	0.618116	120	196
UAE	4	5.525	7.076912	-1.55191	0.780708	110	142
Overall	62	5.990157	8.197157	-2.207	0.73076	120	164

 

Comparing them by opponents, we find out in ODIs

Opponent	Matches	RRF	RRA	NRR	RRF/RRA	Avg score for	Avg score against
Australia	14	3.525223	6.650953	-3.12573	0.530033	176	332
England	21	4.872043	6.267351	-1.39531	0.777369	244	314
India	12	3.917949	5.767757	-1.84981	0.679285	196	288
New Zealand	12	3.335	6.506618	-3.17162	0.512555	166	326
Pakistan	18	3.66195	5.10766	-1.44571	0.716953	184	256
South Africa	15	3.923513	6.614063	-2.69055	0.593208	196	330
Sri Lanka	17	3.498216	6.02474	-2.52652	0.580642	174	302
West Indies	30	4.173671	5.359398	-1.18573	0.778758	208	268
Overall	139	3.92829	5.924372	-1.99608	0.663073	196	296

 

In T20Is, the corresponding figures by opponent are

Opponent	Matches	RRF	RRA	NRR	RRF/RRA	Avg score for	Avg score against
Australia	2	6	7.787217	-1.78722	0.770493	120	156
England	4	6.2875	7.35	-1.0625	0.855442	126	147
India	9	5.657303	9.309136	-3.65183	0.607715	114	186
New Zealand	7	6.448819	8.787965	-2.33915	0.733824	128	176
Pakistan	12	5.995833	8.207343	-2.21151	0.730545	120	164
South Africa	7	6.15	8.692857	-2.54286	0.707477	123	174
Sri Lanka	9	5.05	8.283737	-3.23374	0.609628	101	166
West Indies	12	6.512455	7.172052	-0.6596	0.908032	130	144
Overall	62	5.990157	8.197157	-2.207	0.73076	120	164

 

Looking at these figures, it turns out that the emerging teams seem to be more comfortable in ODIs although the figures seem similar overall in terms of NRR and RRF/RRA. ODIs gives time to build a innings, teams can afford to play a quiet period of 5-10 overs without scoring much runs and still end up with a competitive score whereas in T20Is, playing out 5 overs for 10 runs without losing a wicket will cause a lot of harm. Also scoring at 5-6 RPO is easier than scoring at 9-10 RPO which T20Is will need. Even if we see overall, it has been in ODIs that the Emerging teams have made their names. Ireland came in notice of fans after beating Pakistan in 2007 WC and England in 2011 WC. Scotland’s most famous win in their cricketing history was their win over England in a ODI in 2018 where they scored 371/5 and won by 6 runs. Afghanistan beat Bangladesh in 2014 Asia cup and then beat both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in 2018 Asia cup and West Indies twice in 2018 WCQ to establish themselves. Even in earlier days, Kenya made their mark in ODIs when they beat West Indies in 1996 WC, Sri Lanka in 2003 WC and India twice in ODIs. Only team which made their mark in T20Is has been Netherlands with their famous twin wins over England in T20 WCs in 2009 and 2014   

 

Afghanistan, Ireland and Scotland are more comfortable in ODIs and have done better there whereas Netherlands and UAE have done better in T20Is although as Netherlands plays more matches in the CWC Super League, it could change as Netherlands will be able to compete better in ODIs. Both ODIs and T20Is require slightly different skillsets and Emerging teams skillset is more suited towards ODIs which is mostly about rotating strikes, finding gaps and scoring runs at a decent pace. T20Is require power hitting which batsmen from Emerging teams will struggle to do against the type of bowlers they don’t face regularly

 

Bangladesh, a team which was a Emerging team some years ago, have found ODIs much easier than T20Is. They have regularly beaten top teams in ODI WCs, beating India and South Africa in 2007, England in 2011 and 2015, West Indies and South Africa in 2019 whereas in T20 WCs, Bangladesh are yet to beat a full member after 2007 and their only such win came against West Indies in 2007 in T20 WCs

 

Overall to conclude, it seems that Emerging nations are almost equally competitive in ODIs and T20Is and the myth of them being more competitive in T20Is is clearly false. Stronger teams tend to become more competitive in ODIs as their players gain more experience at the top level as Afghanistan, Ireland and Scotland have shown by their performances